You’ve probably heard that La Niña is on the way. NOAA recently forecasted a 71% chance that La Niña develops between October and December 2025.  Plenty of voices are weighing in on this forecast, each with their own thoughts on what La Niña might mean for our California water supply.

But La Niña — and its “yang,” El Niño — are just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to California precipitation. These ocean phenomena, often referred to as “climate-forcing,” have proven unreliable as definitive predictors of water year yields.

We’re different at Weather Tools. The proprietary California Annual Precipitation (CAP) model doesn’t rely on traditional climate modeling. Our forecast is issued the first week of November and doesn't change. Over Weather Tools’ 9-year record, La Niña has coincided with wet, dry, and near-normal years — and the CAP forecast has verified in all of them.  A few recent examples:

• 2022–23 (Wet La Niña): CAP called for 20–40% above normal precipitation. NOAA’s outlook said “equal chances” of above normal, normal, or below normal. Outcome: +43% statewide.
• 2021–22 (Dry La Niña): CAP called for 20–40% below normal precipitation. NOAA said “equal chances.” Outcome: -22.9% statewide.
• 2024–25 (Average La Niña): CAP called for near normal (90–110%) precipitation. NOAA said “equal chances.” Outcome (as of 9/18/25): 94% of statewide normal.

In each La Niña flavor, CAP provided clarity in place of uncertainty. 

And for nine consecutive years, CAP has delivered accurate, early forecasts — regardless of climate forcing.

The 2025–26 CAP forecast will be issued in the first week of November. Whether this La Niña is wet, dry, or average, CAP will equip Californians with steady, accurate guidance.

Interested in the complete picture for water year 2025-26? Learn more about the CAP forecast here, or schedule a call here.

‍