If you manage reservoirs or water operations in California, you know the rhythm of the B-120. The first forecast doesn’t arrive until February,—four months into the water year. But operational decisions can’t wait until February.

That lag forces managers to prepare for every scenario (drought, flood, or somewhere in between) without real guidance. Weather Tools built the California Reservoir Annual Forecast Tool (CRAFT) to change that by giving you something the B-120 cannot: lead time.

Issued the first week of November, CRAFT delivers a fixed inflow range for 18 major reservoirs. The forecast remains consistent all year, giving managers clarity months before the first B-120 update and a lead time advantage that changes how decisions are made.

In its debut year, CRAFT proved its value:

• At Lake Shasta, the initial B-120 spanned a range of more than 4 million acre-feet. CRAFT delivered a much tighter forecast four months earlier, and Shasta’s observed inflow-to-date is inside CRAFT’s range.
• Folsom Lake and Millerton Lake showed a similar advantage, with CRAFT providing managers a steady target while B-120 narrowed only after months of shifting updates.

That extra lead time is what makes the difference.

Justin Hopkins, GM of Stockton East Water District, explained:

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“Before CRAFT, we’d wait until we received a final allocation—sometimes as late as May—before using any water. But this year, relying on CRAFT’s early forecast, we started releasing water well before a final allocation was confirmed. That kind of confidence lets us operate more efficiently and get ahead instead of waiting around.”

CRAFT is not just about inflow numbers. It is about giving you early, accurate, stable information that allows you to plan with confidence instead of reacting in uncertainty.

Read the full story on how CRAFT is reshaping reservoir forecasting here:
Months Earlier Than B-120 Guidance, CRAFT Is Changing Reservoir Forecasting

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