Lead time matters too.

Forecast lead time refers to the period between when a forecast is issued and the event it predicts. 

A forecast's level of detail and accuracy often depends heavily on this lead time. 

Generally, shorter lead times offer more precise, detailed predictions, while longer lead times are less accurate. 

However…

The Weather Tools California Annual Precipitation (CAP) forecast breaks the mold by providing remarkably accurate seasonal forecasts with a lead time of almost a year.

We can break forecasts into six types regarding their lead time, going from typically most accurate to least.

• Short-term forecasts (0-6 hours)
• Short-range forecasts (6 hours to 2 days)
• Medium-range forecasts (3-7 days)
• Extended-range forecasts (8-14 days)
• Long-range forecasts (15-30 days) 
• Seasonal forecasts (30+ days)

While most long-term forecasts lose accuracy, the CAP forecast consistently delivers detailed and precise predictions. 

For eight consecutive years, CAP has provided accurate seasonal forecasts, making it an exceptional tool for long-term planning and resource management.

While most other seasonal forecasts communicate qualitatively and generally, using phrases like “above/below normal precipitation,” as in NOAA’s seasonal outlook, CAP provides discrete precipitation ranges relative to normal (e.g., water year precipitation 20-40% above normal).

This remarkable performance defies the typical trade-off between lead time and accuracy.  

CAP is both more detailed and more accurate than other precipitation forecasts with similar lead times.

If you’d like to know more about our CAP forecast and how it can save your operation time and money, email me at rob@weathertools.org or call 530-774-5475.